About This Event
“Plan for the futures that could arrive, not just the one you forecast.”
PAC's own structured, hybrid programme in strategic foresight for policymakers. Designed for strategy and research departments, it builds the capacity to scan for emerging change, map drivers and uncertainties, develop plausible scenarios and use them to test policies, strategic plans and institutional resilience.
What You'll Explore
A set of plausible scenarios tailored to your central bank's mandate
A horizon-scanning template and a starter register of signals of change
A wind-tunnel assessment of your current strategy across each scenario
Early-warning indicators to tell you which future is starting to unfold
A plan for embedding foresight in your strategic planning cycle
Who Should Attend
Open to all qualifying staff, particularly: Strategy & Planning Directors, Research Department Heads, Policy Advisers, Risk Management Staff, Governor's Office Staff.
Why This Course Matters
See Change Early
Structured horizon scanning picks up weak signals such as climate shifts, digital money and demographic change before they dominate the agenda. Early sight buys the time to prepare rather than react.
Stress-Test Strategy
Scenarios let you test your strategic plan against several plausible futures rather than one forecast. A plan that holds up across scenarios is one leadership can commit to with more confidence.
Institutional Capability
Foresight becomes useful when it is a routine, not a one-off workshop. Building an in-house capability means scenario thinking feeds into every planning cycle, not just the next strategy document.
Programme
Day 1
Foresight foundations & horizon scanning
You will learn how foresight differs from forecasting and set up a horizon-scanning process using STEEP analysis to capture signals of change relevant to your central bank's mandate.
Day 2
Drivers, megatrends & critical uncertainties
You will map the drivers shaping your policy environment, separate predictable trends from critical uncertainties and rank them by impact, using cross-impact analysis and the Futures Wheel.
Day 3
Building scenarios with the 2x2 & three horizons methods
You will construct a set of plausible, distinct scenarios using the 2x2 matrix and Three Horizons framework, and write scenario narratives vivid enough to challenge assumptions in the room.
Day 4
Wind-tunnelling policies & strategic plans
You will wind-tunnel your institution's strategy and key policies against each scenario, identifying robust choices, early-warning indicators and the contingency actions each future would demand.
Day 5
Embedding foresight & presenting to leadership
You will design a foresight routine for your department, linking it to strategic planning and risk management, and present your scenarios and recommendations to a panel playing your executive committee.
Standards & Faculty Benchmark
OECD Strategic Foresight guidance
OECD methods and public-sector practice for anticipatory governance and scenario-based policy design.
ISO 31000:2018 Risk Management
The international risk-management standard for linking emerging-risk insight to decisions and plans.
UNDP Foresight Manual
UNDP's practical guidance on applying foresight in public institutions in developing economies.
OECD foresight practice and ISO 31000 give your scenario work a recognised method and a direct link to enterprise risk management. That makes your findings easier to feed into board risk reports and strategic plans without being dismissed as speculation.
Is This Right for You?
- ☑You work in strategy, research or risk at your central bank
- ☑Your institution is preparing its next multi-year strategic plan
- ☑You want scenario methods leadership will take seriously
Good to Know
No foresight experience is required; methods are taught through exercises on real central bank issues. The hybrid format combines live online sessions with in-person workshops. You leave with a scenario set for your institution and a plan to embed foresight in planning.
The Bottom Line
Bring back a scenario set and a foresight routine that turn uncertainty into a planning input your board can use.
Recommended For
Open to all qualifying staff, particularly: Strategy & Planning Directors, Research Department Heads, Policy Advisers, Risk Management Staff, Governor's Office Staff.