About This Event
“Tie the macro framework together, and see fiscal risks before they hit reserves.”
A five-day virtual regional workshop on the financial programming and policies framework and the tools used to identify, quantify and manage fiscal risks. You will link the real, fiscal, external and monetary accounts in a consistent macro framework and assess how contingent liabilities and debt shocks affect policy.
What You'll Explore
A consistent four-sector baseline financial programme in Excel
Scenario tools to test fiscal, monetary and exchange-rate policy mixes
A fiscal risk register covering SOEs, guarantees and PPP exposures
A stress-tested debt sustainability analysis for your country
A template fiscal risk statement aligned to international practice
Who Should Attend
Open to all qualifying staff, particularly: Macroeconomists, Research Economists, Fiscal Analysts, Debt Management Staff, Ministry of Finance Officials, Monetary Policy Analysts.
Why This Course Matters
One Consistent Framework
Financial programming ties the four macro sectors together so every projection adds up. That consistency is what makes your macro framework credible in discussions with the IMF and the Treasury.
Visible Fiscal Risks
Contingent liabilities from state-owned enterprises, guarantees and PPPs often sit off the budget. Bringing them into view shows how quickly a fiscal shock could land on monetary policy and reserves.
Central Bank–Treasury Dialogue
A shared framework gives central bank and ministry staff a common basis for discussing the policy mix. Better dialogue means fewer surprises when fiscal and monetary decisions interact.
Programme
Day 1
The FPP framework & macroeconomic accounts linkages
You will set out the financial programming and policies framework, tracing the flow-of-funds linkages between the real, fiscal, external and monetary sectors that keep a macro framework consistent.
Day 2
Building a baseline macro programme
You will build a baseline financial programme in Excel, projecting output, prices, the balance of payments, the budget and the monetary survey, and reconcile the sectors so the numbers add up.
Day 3
Policy scenarios & adjustment programmes
You will design alternative policy scenarios, such as fiscal consolidation, exchange-rate adjustment or monetary tightening, and assess their effects on growth, inflation, reserves and debt.
Day 4
Fiscal risk identification & quantification tools
You will identify and quantify fiscal risks from macro shocks, state-owned enterprises, guarantees and PPPs, applying fiscal stress tests and IMF risk assessment tools to realistic country data.
Day 5
Debt sustainability & fiscal risk management
You will run a debt sustainability analysis under stress scenarios, set out options for mitigating and disclosing fiscal risks, and present an integrated policy assessment to your peers.
Standards & Faculty Benchmark
IMF Financial Programming & Policies framework
The IMF's approach to consistent macroeconomic frameworks used in surveillance and programme design.
IMF Fiscal Transparency Code
IMF standard whose third pillar covers the analysis, disclosure and management of fiscal risks.
IMF-World Bank LIC Debt Sustainability Framework
The joint framework for assessing external and public debt risks in low-income countries.
The FPP framework, Fiscal Transparency Code and LIC DSF are the tools IMF and World Bank teams use when they assess your economy. Working in the same framework means your analysis stands up in programme negotiations and Article IV discussions.
Is This Right for You?
- ☑You build or review macroeconomic frameworks and projections
- ☑Your institution engages regularly with IMF or World Bank teams
- ☑You need to assess how fiscal risks could affect monetary policy
Good to Know
Designed for economists who know the macroeconomic accounts; spreadsheet exercises are built step by step. Delivered live online to a regional cohort. You leave with a consistent baseline macro programme, scenario tools and a fiscal risk statement template for your country.
The Bottom Line
Return with a macro framework that adds up and a fiscal risk view that shows where the next shock to policy could come from.
Recommended For
Open to all qualifying staff, particularly: Macroeconomists, Research Economists, Fiscal Analysts, Debt Management Staff, Ministry of Finance Officials, Monetary Policy Analysts.