About This Event
“Replace policy hunches with scenarios from a model your committee can interrogate.”
An applied workshop building DSGE modelling skills for monetary and fiscal policy analysis. You will set up, calibrate and estimate New Keynesian models, add open-economy and fiscal features relevant to African economies, and use them to run policy scenarios, impulse responses and forecasts that inform committee decisions.
What You'll Explore
A working open-economy DSGE model in Dynare, calibrated to a case
Hands-on practice with Bayesian estimation of key parameters
A library of impulse responses to common domestic and external shocks
A set of coordinated monetary and fiscal policy scenarios
A model-based committee briefing with clear policy options
Who Should Attend
Open to all qualifying staff, particularly: Modelling & Forecasting Economists, Research Department Staff, Monetary Policy Analysts, Fiscal Economists, Heads of Modelling Units.
Why This Course Matters
Structured Thinking
A DSGE model makes every assumption about expectations and behaviour explicit. That discipline means policy debates focus on the assumptions that matter, not on whose intuition is louder.
Better Scenarios
Impulse responses and policy simulations show how shocks travel through the economy. Clearer scenarios give the committee a sounder basis for deciding how far and how fast to move rates.
Policy Coordination
Adding fiscal rules and debt dynamics shows how monetary and fiscal choices interact. Understanding that interaction helps the central bank engage the treasury on shared ground.
Programme
Days 1–2
DSGE foundations & the New Keynesian core model
You will derive and solve a three-equation New Keynesian model, covering household and firm behaviour, price rigidities and a policy rule, and implement it in Dynare.
Days 3–4
Calibration, solution methods & impulse responses
You will calibrate parameters to your economy, solve the model by perturbation methods, and interpret impulse responses to demand, supply and monetary policy shocks.
Days 5–6
Open-economy features & the exchange rate
You will extend the model with imports, exchange-rate pass-through, capital flows and commodity prices, the features that dominate monetary transmission in small open economies.
Days 7–8
Fiscal policy, debt dynamics & Bayesian estimation
You will add government spending, taxation and debt rules, then estimate key parameters with Bayesian methods and judge how well the model fits your own country data.
Days 9–10
Policy simulations, forecasting & committee briefing
You will run coordinated monetary and fiscal scenarios, produce a model-based forecast, and present the results as a committee briefing with clear policy options.
Standards & Faculty Benchmark
IMF Forecasting & Policy Analysis System
The FPAS approach to model-based forecasting and policy analysis at inflation-targeting central banks.
Dynare DSGE toolkit
Widely used open-source software for solving, simulating and estimating DSGE models.
IMF BPM7 & SNA 2025
National and external accounts standards behind the data used to calibrate and estimate models.
Central banks and IMF teams commonly build and discuss policy models within an FPAS approach, often using Dynare. Working in the same tools and structure means your models can be shared, reviewed and improved with peers rather than sitting in isolation.
Is This Right for You?
- ☑You build or use models for forecasting and policy analysis
- ☑Your institution is developing a model-based policy framework
- ☑You want to move from textbook models to applied scenarios
Good to Know
Suited to mid-to-senior economists with intermediate macroeconomics and some experience of MATLAB, Octave or similar tools. You leave with a working open-economy DSGE model in Dynare, calibrated to a case economy, and a scenario briefing built on it.
The Bottom Line
Return with a DSGE model you built, understand and can use to put credible policy scenarios before your committee.
Recommended For
Open to all qualifying staff, particularly: Modelling & Forecasting Economists, Research Department Staff, Monetary Policy Analysts, Fiscal Economists, Heads of Modelling Units.