About This Event
“Give your Monetary Policy Committee a forecast it can argue with, and trust.”
A two-week, in-person programme that builds the forecasting and policy-analysis system (FPAS) behind modern monetary policy decisions. You will construct a semi-structural gap model, calibrate it to your economy, run policy scenarios and turn model output into the forecast narrative a Monetary Policy Committee needs to set rates.
What You'll Explore
A calibrated quarterly projection model tailored to your own economy
A complete mock forecast round, from data filtering to recommended rate path
Scenario templates for oil, exchange-rate and food-price shocks
An MPC briefing note format with fan charts and a risk balance
A practical routine for combining model output with expert judgement
Who Should Attend
Open to all qualifying staff, particularly: Monetary Policy Analysts, Research Economists, Forecasting Unit Heads, MPC Secretariat Staff, Heads of Economic Research.
Why This Course Matters
Consistent Policy Stories
A structured model forces inflation, output, the exchange rate and the policy rate into one coherent story. That coherence means the committee debates the judgement calls, not whose spreadsheet is right.
Forward-Looking Decisions
An FPAS turns the policy rate into a forecast-based decision rather than a reaction to last month's inflation print. Acting on the forecast is what lets policy get ahead of shocks instead of chasing them.
Credible Communication
Model-based forecasts give the Governor a transparent rationale for every rate decision. A rationale the public can follow is what anchors expectations and makes each rate move do more of the work.
Programme
Days 1–2
FPAS architecture & the monetary transmission mechanism
You will map how a forecasting and policy-analysis system fits into the policy cycle, from data and nowcasts to the MPC briefing, and set out the transmission channels your model must capture.
Days 3–4
Building the core semi-structural gap model
You will build the four core equations of a quarterly projection model, the IS curve, Phillips curve, uncovered interest parity and policy rule, and learn what each parameter means for policy.
Days 5–6
Filtering, calibration & historical decomposition
You will estimate unobserved trends and gaps with Kalman and HP filters, calibrate the model to your own economy and use shock decompositions to explain why inflation moved the way it did.
Days 7–8
Baseline forecasts, judgement & policy scenarios
You will produce a baseline forecast, layer in expert judgement and near-term nowcasts, and run alternative scenarios such as oil, exchange-rate and food-price shocks to test the policy path.
Days 9–10
Forecast rounds, MPC briefing & fan-chart communication
You will run a full mock forecast round, draft the MPC briefing note with fan charts and risk scenarios, and defend your recommended rate path before a panel playing your committee.
Standards & Faculty Benchmark
IMF FPAS & quarterly projection model practice
The forecasting and policy-analysis approach the IMF supports in inflation-targeting central banks.
IMF Integrated Policy Framework (IPF)
IMF guidance on combining monetary, FX intervention and macroprudential tools in open economies.
BIS research on monetary policy frameworks
Comparative central bank practice on forecasting, policy rules and communication in emerging markets.
IMF FPAS practice is the reference many African central banks follow when modernising policy frameworks, often with IMF technical assistance. Building your model to the same structure means your forecasts can be read, reviewed and extended by peers and TA teams as they stand.
Is This Right for You?
- ☑You prepare forecasts or analysis for your Monetary Policy Committee
- ☑Your institution is moving towards forward-looking inflation targeting
- ☑You want a model you can maintain in-house, not a black box
Good to Know
Suited to economists with a grasp of macroeconomics and basic econometrics; models are built step by step in Excel and Dynare-style code, so no modelling experience is needed. You leave with a calibrated gap model and a mock MPC forecast package for your own economy.
The Bottom Line
Go home with a working policy model and a forecast round your MPC could run next quarter, built and defended by your own team.
Recommended For
Open to all qualifying staff, particularly: Monetary Policy Analysts, Research Economists, Forecasting Unit Heads, MPC Secretariat Staff, Heads of Economic Research.