About This Event
“Read your economy the way a mission team will, and reach the answer first.”
A practical programme that strengthens how you assess a country's macroeconomic situation. You will diagnose growth, inflation and external positions, judge the stance of fiscal and monetary policy, assess vulnerabilities across sectors and run debt sustainability analysis, bringing the findings together in a coherent diagnostic note.
What You'll Explore
A completed macroeconomic diagnostic note for a case economy
A debt sustainability template with standard stress tests
Output gap estimates using filter and production-function methods
A policy stance dashboard linking fiscal and monetary indicators
An external sector assessment using reserve adequacy metrics
Who Should Attend
Open to all qualifying staff, particularly: Macroeconomists, Research Department Staff, Ministry of Finance Analysts, Debt Management Staff, Senior Policy Advisers.
Why This Course Matters
Sharper Diagnosis
Structured tools separate cyclical weakness from deeper structural problems. A sharper diagnosis means policy responds to the actual cause, rather than to the symptom that shows up first.
Clear Policy Stance
Output gaps, real interest rates and structural balances show whether policy is tight or loose. A clear view of stance helps the central bank and treasury avoid pulling in opposite directions.
Debt Risks Seen Early
Debt sustainability analysis shows how growth, rates and exchange-rate shocks change the debt path. Seeing those risks early gives your institution time to shape financing and fiscal choices.
Programme
Days 1–2
Growth, the output gap & inflation dynamics
You will estimate potential output and the output gap using filters and production-function methods, and analyse inflation drivers to judge where the economy sits in the cycle.
Days 3–4
Fiscal and monetary policy stance
You will measure the fiscal stance with structural and primary balances and the monetary stance with real rates and policy-rule benchmarks, then assess whether the two are consistent.
Days 5–6
External sector & exchange rate assessment
You will assess the current account, reserve adequacy and exchange-rate level using the IMF's External Balance Assessment approach and reserve adequacy metrics.
Days 7–8
Debt sustainability analysis & balance sheet risks
You will run a debt sustainability analysis under the LIC DSF or the SRDSF, stress it with growth, rate and exchange-rate shocks, and map balance sheet risks across sectors.
Days 9–10
Integrated diagnostic note & peer review
You will combine the analysis into a concise diagnostic note with policy recommendations, and present it for peer review in the format a mission or Article IV team would expect.
Standards & Faculty Benchmark
IMF-World Bank LIC Debt Sustainability Framework
The joint framework for assessing debt risk in low-income countries and assigning risk ratings.
IMF Sovereign Risk & Debt Sustainability (SRDSF)
The IMF framework for sovereign risk and debt sustainability in market-access countries.
IMF External Balance Assessment (EBA)
IMF methodology for assessing current account and real exchange rate positions.
IMF and World Bank teams use these frameworks to rate debt risk and assess external positions in Article IV and programme work. Applying them yourself means your institution can test the findings, anticipate the conclusions and argue its case on equal terms.
Is This Right for You?
- ☑You assess macroeconomic conditions or brief senior management
- ☑Your institution engages regularly with IMF or World Bank teams
- ☑You want diagnostic tools you can apply to your own economy
Good to Know
Suited to economists with working knowledge of macroeconomics and spreadsheets; the hybrid format combines online preparation with in-person case work. You leave with a completed diagnostic note and a debt sustainability template applied to a case economy.
The Bottom Line
Leave with a diagnostic approach that lets your institution reach its own conclusions before anyone else writes them down.
Recommended For
Open to all qualifying staff, particularly: Macroeconomists, Research Department Staff, Ministry of Finance Analysts, Debt Management Staff, Senior Policy Advisers.